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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 22 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 19 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Pablo · 19 games
58%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bashka · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 11 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
568 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 221 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
352 picks · 348 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 504 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 860 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 691 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 401 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total62% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:42
Zero Tenacity 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:07:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
51% · 176 games47% · 298 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Luna
LunaNande
54% · 159 games50% · 196 games
DoomLowskill
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
50% · 322 games46% · 83 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSe
63% · 142 games44% · 268 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Marci
Marciyamich
47% · 211 games48% · 165 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct25:26
Zero Tenacity 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNande
55% · 108 games45% · 232 games
TerrorbladeLowskill
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckMirage
56% · 317 games50% · 213 games
Dragon Knightyoung G
Dragon Knight
Lycan
LycanNefrit
56% · 105 games48% · 130 games
MarsCovisnine
Mars
Marci
Marciyamich
47% · 123 games45% · 246 games
Batriderasdekor_r
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockSe
50% · 176 games50% · 8 games
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct37:11
Zero Tenacity 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNande
61% · 75 games49% · 238 games
TerrorbladeLowskill
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNefrit
44% · 110 games58% · 52 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirage
50% · 117 games47% · 65 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
50% · 10 games67% · 5 games
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Skywrath Mage
Warlock
WarlockSe
47% · 116 games48% · 68 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3