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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 34 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
71%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 20 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 31 game
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 30 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 28 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Sneyking · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
575 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 221 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 350 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 691 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 862 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 404 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head7 – 9
Model total55% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Team Spirit 57%Team Falcons 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
51% · 37 games46% · 132 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
48% · 321 game45% · 175 games
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
50% · 379 games55% · 221 game
MagnusATF
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
47% · 432 games53% · 351 game
BatriderSneyking
Batrider
Bane
BaneMiposhka
55% · 108 games50% · 398 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Team Spirit 56%Team Falcons 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
50% · 129 games47% · 305 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaMirele
46% · 156 games49% · 157 games
DawnbreakerATF
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonCollapse
43% · 202 games54% · 210 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrue
53% · 236 games49% · 166 games
MarciCr1t-
Marci
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
54% · 190 games56% · 75 games
DazzleSneyking
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2