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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 13 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 11 games
45%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 17 games
35%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 13 games
23%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 12 games
58%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
575 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 220 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 348 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 691 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 862 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 405 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Passion UA 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBatyuk
52% · 171 game60% · 50 games
Broodmotherrubikon155
Broodmother
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
44% · 200 games49% · 321 game
BeastmasterPalantimos
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
44% · 282 games51% · 206 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Pugna
Pugnakreker
49% · 206 games51% · 340 games
BatriderAtoufix
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
56% · 144 games48% · 86 games
UndyingPonlo
Undying
Game 2prediction correct48:23
Passion UA 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
48% · 168 games46% · 261 game
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
40% · 92 games59% · 118 games
EarthshakerMaTson
Earthshaker
Batrider
BatriderBatyuk
54% · 179 games56% · 43 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Warlock
Warlockkreker
43% · 162 games56% · 136 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
46% · 61 game52% · 104 games
SilencerPonlo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 60%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2