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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Odiumloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Odium

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Lil · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
lupsione · 5 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
lupsione · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Rain · 3 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 14 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bashka · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
572 picks · 590 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
374 picks · 217 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 425 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 352 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 506 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 692 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 859 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
303 picks · 627 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Odium
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total79% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
Odium 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenselfhate
48% · 107 games48% · 379 games
TerrorbladeLowskill
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerActor
49% · 173 games54% · 376 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Tiny
TinyRain
53% · 354 games51% · 139 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Tusk
Tusklupsione
48% · 366 games45% · 102 games
Snapfirexsvampire
Snapfire
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLil
54% · 214 games50% · 218 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct9:35
Odium 34%Nemiga Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingselfhate
52% · 240 games53% · 124 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Axe
AxeActor
45% · 123 games53% · 312 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Huskar
HuskarRain
57% · 32 games46% · 150 games
MarsCovisnine
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanlupsione
53% · 286 games48% · 335 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskLil
48% · 432 games50% · 192 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 79%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2