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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
29%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 15 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 13 games
38%
Axe
Axesignature
Infernal · 11 games
64%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 11 games
36%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
prblms · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 6 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 6 games
17%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 591 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
371 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 356 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
325 picks · 693 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 859 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
304 picks · 627 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:20
Yellow Submarine 51%Team Yandex 49%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
49% · 371 game48% · 239 games
DoomTA2000
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
54% · 327 games47% · 102 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
52% · 253 games48% · 212 games
Kunkkaififall
Kunkka
Pudge
Pudgemrls
51% · 19 games52% · 236 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
51% · 94 games48% · 275 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed30:18
Yellow Submarine 49%Team Yandex 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusabottega
50% · 120 games49% · 295 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
55% · 217 games50% · 141 game
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
43% · 152 games54% · 117 games
Undyingififall
Undying
Magnus
MagnusInfernal
55% · 133 games49% · 82 games
Baneaik
Bane
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
49% · 203 games46% · 190 games
Marciprblms
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 50%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2