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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 10 games
80%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 12 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 12 games
42%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 590 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 424 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 507 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
325 picks · 691 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 858 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
304 picks · 627 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:35
HULIGANI 56%TNL DOTA 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkaerase
47% · 221 game56% · 230 games
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
51% · 305 games52% · 290 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Doom
DoomCorrupted
50% · 261 game55% · 387 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
49% · 435 games50% · 104 games
Disruptorflacko
Disruptor
Silencer
SilencerBb3px
41% · 122 games49% · 333 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed20:30
HULIGANI 56%TNL DOTA 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 45:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
52% · 290 games52% · 177 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
42% · 163 games50% · 376 games
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCorrupted
50% · 71 game54% · 143 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHellscream
55% · 131 game49% · 82 games
Undyingflacko
Undying
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
45% · 232 games51% · 109 games
RubickFernans
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 63%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2