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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 27 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 17 games
71%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 12 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 12 games
42%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 590 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 362 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 692 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 855 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
307 picks · 625 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:38
4Pirates 57%TNL DOTA 43%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
41% · 129 games58% · 87 games
Ursayowaai
Ursa
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
46% · 116 games50% · 105 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Leshrac
LeshracNattyNarwhal
48% · 87 games57% · 109 games
MarciNorma
Marci
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
46% · 120 games64% · 67 games
Chenflacko
Chen
Snapfire
Snapfireariel
41% · 80 games52% · 164 games
Shadow ShamanFernans
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed29:42
4Pirates 59%TNL DOTA 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 54:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonOtaker
42% · 115 games52% · 115 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
48% · 229 games51% · 236 games
Dragon Knightyowaai
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
50% · 255 games45% · 207 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Pugna
Pugnaariel
53% · 218 games46% · 262 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Bane
Banevelheor
60% · 75 games53% · 72 games
Disruptorflacko
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 62%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2