CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 11 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 18 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 12 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 591 bans
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 423 bans
Tiny
355 picks · 368 bans
Pangolier
336 picks · 506 bans
Terrorblade
325 picks · 695 bans
Puck
321 picks · 849 bans
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:40
eSpoiled 35%TNL DOTA 65%
The model gave 65% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreakerssnovv1
Doomyowaai
TinyWein
DazzleNorma
Pugnaasdekor_r
Void Spiritdualrazee
48% · 58 games
Disruptorflacko
46% · 253 games
TuskFernans
Game 2prediction correct26:30
eSpoiled 32%TNL DOTA 68%
The model gave 68% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 56:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladessnovv1
Leshracdualrazee
Silencerasdekor_r
Doomyowaai
TuskWein
UnderlordNorma
56% · 71 game
Chenflacko
58% · 210 games
BatriderFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 77%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2