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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:1
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aim Possible

Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Garbat1y · 4 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Garbat1y · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
0%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 27 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
578 picks · 590 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 422 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 369 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 696 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 848 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
306 picks · 631 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 63%
Hero pool strength65% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aim Possible 10%4Pirates 90%
The model gave 90% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 90%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1