CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
Warlock
Solo · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 8 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 6 games
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Bane
prblms · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 5 games
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
578 picks · 589 bans
Tusk
371 picks · 422 bans
Dark Willow
368 picks · 216 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
329 picks · 696 bans
Puck
321 picks · 845 bans
Nature's Prophet
306 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Team Yandex 69%Aim Possible 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverTA2000
PugnaGarbat1y
Timbersawififall
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Warlockaik
Shadow Shamanprblms
Game 2prediction correct23:18
Team Yandex 72%Aim Possible 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaTA2000
Ancient ApparitionGarbat1y
Dawnbreakerififall
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
Pugnaaik
Tuskprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 84%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2