?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 26 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
YamSun · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 18 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 32 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 26 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 421 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 376 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
366 picks · 217 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
338 picks · 709 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 840 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 637 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 28%4Pirates 72%
The model gave 72% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 28%4Pirates 72%
The model gave 72% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 72%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2