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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 32 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 26 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 17 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 16 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 13 games
54%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 379 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 421 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 214 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
339 picks · 707 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 836 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
315 picks · 636 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% 4Pirates
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total60% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
4Pirates 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 24:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciOtaker
47% · 217 games47% · 166 games
Queen of Painrincyq
Queen of Pain
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
51% · 192 games52% · 131 game
Primal BeastCovisnine
Primal Beast
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
48% · 90 games57% · 194 games
Monkey Kingyoung G
Monkey King
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
52% · 68 games45% · 139 games
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Batrider
Batriderariel
53% · 362 games48% · 299 games
Tuskxsvampire
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:38
4Pirates 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 54:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOtaker
56% · 154 games47% · 192 games
Nature's Prophetrincyq
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
48% · 367 games47% · 211 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
63% · 130 games51% · 169 games
MarsCovisnine
Mars
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
52% · 89 games43% · 189 games
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Batrider
Batriderariel
49% · 352 games43% · 331 game
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 60%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2