European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 22 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 19 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 379 bans
Tusk
376 picks · 419 bans
Dark Willow
362 picks · 213 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
337 picks · 708 bans
Puck
325 picks · 830 bans
Nature's Prophet
315 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 25%
Hero pool strength61% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total87% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:27
Runa Team 72%Team Lynx 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendnicky`cool
Luna7jesu
Terrorbladenesfeer
Ember Spiritmellojul
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
MarsfortniteMan
Dark Willowqueezy
ClockwerkHduo
Game 2prediction missed33:33
Runa Team 74%Team Lynx 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
Luna7jesu
AxeAlberkaaa
Puckmellojul
Nature's Prophetqueezy
Anti-MagefortniteMan
Monkey Kingnicky`cool
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 87%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2