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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
31%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 10 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Norma · 10 games
40%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 591 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 386 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 412 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 211 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
333 picks · 720 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 826 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 637 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:21
TNL DOTA 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealeryowaai
58% · 63 games47% · 224 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Dazzle
DazzleNorma
50% · 36 games48% · 108 games
AxefortniteMan
Axe
Batrider
Batriderdualrazee
55% · 174 games48% · 226 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskFernans
43% · 232 games
Bane
Baneflacko
55% · 53 games
Game 2prediction correct40:38
TNL DOTA 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceryowaai
little data58% · 72 games
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
50% · 52 games52% · 46 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNorma
53% · 59 games47% · 133 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Disruptor
Disruptorflacko
44% · 23 games
Tusk
TuskFernans
44% · 117 games
Game 3prediction correct28:17
TNL DOTA 67%Team Lynx 33%
The model gave 67% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
47% · 135 games55% · 159 games
Sven7jesu
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
39% · 183 games57% · 198 games
Dark SeerfortniteMan
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
42% · 214 games59% · 333 games
Monkey Kingmellojul
Monkey King
Warlock
Warlockflacko
45% · 114 games
Snapfire
SnapfireFernans
42% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 81%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3