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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 25 games
68%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
73%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
53%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
31%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Mirana
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 10 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 388 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
381 picks · 412 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 211 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
335 picks · 718 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 827 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 635 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% 4Pirates
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total81% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:38
4Pirates 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordOtaker
44% · 88 games49% · 150 games
Medusarubikon155
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
52% · 299 games51% · 392 games
TinyMaTson
Tiny
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
47% · 93 games51% · 200 games
DawnbreakerPalantimos
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batriderariel
52% · 341 game59% · 116 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Marci
MarciPERDAN4IK
49% · 125 games44% · 88 games
DisruptorPonlo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed36:42
4Pirates 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageOtaker
46% · 41 game46% · 104 games
Medusarubikon155
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
49% · 206 games52% · 166 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
51% · 118 games45% · 134 games
Dark SeerPalantimos
Dark Seer
Bane
BanePERDAN4IK
61% · 116 games54% · 195 games
BatriderPonlo
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
52% · 336 games41% · 218 games
TuskAtoufix
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 81%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2