CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 13 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 8 games
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
Tiny
bashka · 8 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 11 games
Batridersignature
Wein · 10 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 405 bans
Dark Willow
352 picks · 210 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
329 picks · 714 bans
Nature's Prophet
321 picks · 625 bans
Puck
320 picks · 816 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Nemiga Gaming 59%eSpoiled 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerincyq
Abaddonssnovv1
Dragon Knightyoung G
Enchantressasdekor_r
SlardarCovisnine
Shadow ShamanWein
Muertaxsvampire
Baneaik
Game 2prediction correct34:20
Nemiga Gaming 53%eSpoiled 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerincyq
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
Leshracyoung G
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
MarsCovisnine
BatriderWein
Windrangerxsvampire
Tuskaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2