European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Odiumloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
Odium
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil · 1 game
Phantom Lancer
selfhate · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Rain · 1 game
Ringmaster
lupsione · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
lupsione · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Tiny
Rain · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 405 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 210 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
Terrorblade
329 picks · 711 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 620 bans
Puck
319 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Odium
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:28
Level UP 52%Odium 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterPalantimos
Abaddonselfhate
Primal BeastMaTson
Storm SpiritRain
Broodmotherrubikon155
PudgeActor
BatriderAtoufix
Naga SirenLil
SilencerPonlo
Dark Willowlupsione
Game 2prediction missed40:19
Level UP 50%Odium 50%
The model gave 50% on Odium — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursarubikon155
Svenselfhate
Dragon KnightMaTson
TimbersawRain
AxePalantimos
UndyingActor
BatriderPonlo
Dark Willowlupsione
MarciAtoufix
OracleLil
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 53%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2