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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 8 games
63%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
bashka · 8 games
25%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 7 games
43%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 14 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 13 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 390 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 405 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 210 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 711 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 620 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 812 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:16
Nemiga Gaming 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterbashka
51% · 231 game57% · 136 games
Svenbottega
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
45% · 353 games55% · 332 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsCovisnine
46% · 161 game52% · 199 games
Dark SeerInfernal
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
50% · 281 game44% · 83 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
53% · 153 games47% · 429 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Nemiga Gaming 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusabashka
46% · 137 games52% · 292 games
Dragon Knightbottega
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckyoung G
54% · 297 games55% · 136 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
46% · 148 games46% · 75 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
54% · 260 games54% · 227 games
Shadow Shamanmrls
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
40% · 64 games50% · 176 games
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct25:33
Nemiga Gaming 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterbashka
48% · 215 games47% · 284 games
Dragon Knightbottega
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckyoung G
54% · 297 games53% · 133 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsCovisnine
48% · 112 games47% · 72 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Snapfire
Snapfirexsvampire
45% · 74 games53% · 141 game
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Warlock
WarlockMary_y
48% · 167 games54% · 235 games
Shadow Shamanmrls
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 64%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3