CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
Dark Willow
queezy · 21 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 21 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
Kalmychata
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Ringmastersignature
not me · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Axesignature
meLes · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
meLes · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
377 picks · 405 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 209 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
Terrorblade
329 picks · 708 bans
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 619 bans
Puck
318 picks · 808 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:44
Runa Team 54%Kalmychata 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendShigetsu
DoomLowskill
Pucknicky`cool
Queen of Painxn丶e
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Dark SeerCorrupted
Pugnaqueezy
TuskGilgir
Ogre MagiHduo
Game 2prediction missed20:31
Runa Team 55%Kalmychata 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
TerrorbladeLowskill
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Storm Spiritxn丶e
AbaddonAlberkaaa
Dark SeerCorrupted
PugnaHduo
EarthshakerGilgir
Lionqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 59%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2