Odium vs Aim Possible — prediction EPLS 29 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3

result vs prediction

Odiumwin 2:0

series probability

49%51%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Aim Possibleloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Odium

No games played over 6 months.

Aim Possible

Terrorbladeoften banned

chempik · 5 games

40%

Warlock

Aidar · 5 games

40%

Dazzleoften banned

Aidar · 4 games

25%

Ursaoften banned

rubikon155 · 3 games

Ancient Apparitionoften banned

Htrd · 2 games

Disruptor

Htrd · 2 games

50%

Jakiro

Aidar · 2 games

Leshrac

Rain · 2 games

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

582 picks · 588 bans

54%

Tiny

394 picks · 391 bans

49%

Tusk

377 picks · 403 bans

48%

Dark Willow

347 picks · 208 bans

51%

Pangolier

345 picks · 504 bans

50%

Terrorblade

328 picks · 708 bans

45%

Nature's Prophet

318 picks · 615 bans

55%

Puck

318 picks · 804 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%

Hero pool strength57% Odium

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% Aim Possible

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:8

Odium 51%Aim Possible 49%

The model gave 51% on Odium — the game was taken by Odium in 22:58.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo