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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 20 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 31 game
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 31 game
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 24 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 16 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 393 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 403 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
346 picks · 208 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 707 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 614 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 802 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total52% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:11
Runa Team 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeShigetsu
44% · 218 games54% · 301 game
BeastmasterOtaker
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
46% · 132 games52% · 173 games
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaAlberkaaa
45% · 136 games48% · 143 games
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Pugna
Pugnaqueezy
49% · 138 games29% · 3 games
Skywrath Mageariel
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
50% · 64 games61% · 68 games
BanePERDAN4IK
Bane
Game 2prediction missed39:24
Runa Team 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
50% · 128 games56% · 82 games
UndyingOtaker
Undying
Sniper
Snipernicky`cool
53% · 123 games50% · 206 games
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
Monkey King
Marci
MarciAlberkaaa
49% · 142 games49% · 38 games
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
41% · 267 games50% · 310 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
49% · 78 games55% · 102 games
PugnaPERDAN4IK
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 52%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2