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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
meLes · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
meLes · 7 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 22 games
55%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 22 games
41%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 393 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 404 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
347 picks · 208 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 709 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
319 picks · 614 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 803 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total83% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Kalmychata 17%Zero Tenacity 83%
The model gave 83% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 2prediction missed
Kalmychata 17%Zero Tenacity 83%
The model gave 83% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 83%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2