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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
14%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
29%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Mirana
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 393 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 404 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
347 picks · 207 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 504 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 705 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 612 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 799 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:20
Nemiga Gaming 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbashka
55% · 225 games49% · 227 games
TimbersawMaTson
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
45% · 241 game53% · 364 games
Monkey Kingrubikon155
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierCovisnine
40% · 272 games50% · 145 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Tiny
Tinyxsvampire
53% · 295 games48% · 197 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
55% · 53 games54% · 153 games
SilencerPonlo
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Nemiga Gaming 59%Level UP 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbashka
55% · 82 games47% · 66 games
Slarkrubikon155
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
51% · 247 games51% · 144 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCovisnine
46% · 101 game54% · 310 games
Ember SpiritMaTson
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batriderxsvampire
45% · 213 games47% · 149 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
57% · 109 games44% · 83 games
DisruptorPonlo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2