CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 8 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 8 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 8 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 12 games
Batridersignature
Wein · 10 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 9 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
375 picks · 399 bans
Dark Willow
344 picks · 207 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 507 bans
Terrorblade
328 picks · 699 bans
Nature's Prophet
319 picks · 611 bans
Puck
319 picks · 792 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:18
Level UP 53%eSpoiled 47%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 47:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackrubikon155
Medusassnovv1
DawnbreakerpJonn
MarciWein
SlardarMaTson
Baneasdekor_r
DisruptorPonlo
RingmasterAtoufix
Game 2prediction missed32:36
Level UP 52%eSpoiled 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 49:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkrubikon155
Ursassnovv1
PangolierMaTson
MarciWein
Dark SeerpJonn
Baneasdekor_r
Spirit BreakerAtoufix
DisruptorPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 55%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2