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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 16 games
50%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
581 picks · 585 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 406 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 398 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
338 picks · 207 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
333 picks · 701 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
323 picks · 614 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 790 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total72% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:33
Runa Team 64%Level UP 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
50% · 170 games43% · 228 games
Morphlingrubikon155
Morphling
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
52% · 271 game55% · 134 games
Primal BeastMaTson
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
44% · 138 games54% · 345 games
BeastmasterPalantimos
Beastmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
55% · 108 games51% · 125 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
48% · 233 games47% · 88 games
SilencerPonlo
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct45:16
Runa Team 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
50% · 199 games52% · 125 games
Medusarubikon155
Medusa
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
49% · 178 games50% · 179 games
DawnbreakerPalantimos
Dawnbreaker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
52% · 141 game48% · 210 games
Storm SpiritMaTson
Storm Spirit
Pugna
Pugnaqueezy
55% · 126 games46% · 81 game
SnapfirePonlo
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
43% · 62 games53% · 111 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct46:28
Runa Team 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
43% · 90 games52% · 278 games
PangolierMaTson
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painnicky`cool
43% · 175 games57% · 136 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
47% · 125 games49% · 90 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Warlock
WarlockHduo
46% · 198 games61% · 15 games
Winter WyvernPonlo
Winter Wyvern
Marci
Marciqueezy
48% · 161 game59% · 230 games
Shadow ShamanAtoufix
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 72%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3