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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
14%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 6 games
33%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 30 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 30 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 22 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 20 games
55%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
579 picks · 583 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 406 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 397 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 513 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
338 picks · 206 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
331 picks · 699 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 613 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 786 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total65% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Nemiga Gaming 40%4Pirates 60%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
47% · 239 games47% · 68 games
UnderlordOtaker
Underlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbashka
53% · 241 game46% · 125 games
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Axe
AxeCovisnine
40% · 100 games59% · 226 games
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
Monkey King
Bane
BaneMary_y
51% · 108 games47% · 121 game
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxsvampire
49% · 83 games57% · 231 game
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Nemiga Gaming 41%4Pirates 59%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebashka
50% · 281 game49% · 132 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
39% · 84 games50% · 189 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyoung G
48% · 260 games52% · 296 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingMary_y
53% · 113 games56% · 275 games
Nature's ProphetPERDAN4IK
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
52% · 242 games48% · 88 games
Snapfireariel
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 65%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2