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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 25 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
RCY · 22 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
565 picks · 573 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 410 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 392 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 522 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 201 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 711 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 606 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 771 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Wildcard Gaming 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction missed
Wildcard Gaming 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 53%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2