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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
27%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
563 picks · 572 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 411 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 392 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 521 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 200 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 712 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 604 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 771 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 39%
Hero pool strength63% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total64% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:22
1w Team 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
43% · 251 game60% · 179 games
Naga SirenShad
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckSquad1x
44% · 230 games57% · 72 games
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Dazzle
DazzleSSS
41% · 57 games62% · 258 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Elder Titan
Elder Titankasane
47% · 90 games55% · 158 games
Ancient ApparitionLelis
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
45% · 358 games46% · 319 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct45:20
1w Team 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
51% · 187 games45% · 90 games
UnderlordShad
Underlord
Puck
PuckSquad1x
51% · 227 games52% · 269 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
52% · 165 games48% · 417 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetkasane
53% · 215 games44% · 103 games
PugnaLelis
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
52% · 260 games51% · 175 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 64%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2