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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
564 picks · 572 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 411 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 393 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 521 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 200 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 713 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
325 picks · 605 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 773 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 3prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 66%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3