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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 11 games
27%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tiny
Crystallize · 22 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 13 games
38%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
562 picks · 568 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 391 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 523 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 198 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 720 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
325 picks · 606 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
305 picks · 775 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total75% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:40
MOUZ 63%Passion UA 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razor423
50% · 96 games65% · 47 games
HuskarMoonlight
Huskar
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
50% · 418 games46% · 219 games
Primal BeastBatyuk
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderSupream^
52% · 308 games49% · 311 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSeleri
54% · 178 games45% · 35 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Snapfire
SnapfireThiolicor
42% · 89 games50% · 477 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed34:50
MOUZ 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:04:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
45% · 269 games49% · 230 games
DawnbreakerCrystallize
Dawnbreaker
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
48% · 207 games50% · 143 games
Primal BeastBatyuk
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
54% · 337 games55% · 100 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Undying
UndyingSeleri
52% · 77 games55% · 139 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
50% · 227 games45% · 505 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 75%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2