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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNL DOTAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
31%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 10 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Norma · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
562 picks · 568 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 391 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 523 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 198 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 723 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
325 picks · 609 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 442 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 50%TNL DOTA 50%
The model gave 50% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 50%TNL DOTA 50%
The model gave 50% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 50%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2