European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
Svenoften banned
bashka · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 6 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
monodrama · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 6 games
Runa Team
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
552 picks · 566 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
371 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 521 bans
Terrorblade
327 picks · 719 bans
Dark Willow
326 picks · 197 bans
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 606 bans
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 442 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 34%Runa Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 34%Runa Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 66%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2