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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 9 games
56%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
27%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shad · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
550 picks · 566 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 389 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 520 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
326 picks · 196 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 719 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 604 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 441 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
MOUZ 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
50% · 442 games48% · 136 games
UrsaShad
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend423
51% · 179 games52% · 300 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
53% · 370 games41% · 266 games
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
57% · 126 games48% · 216 games
Shadow ShamanLelis
Shadow Shaman
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 203 games48% · 402 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct34:20
MOUZ 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
49% · 221 game50% · 94 games
AbaddonShad
Abaddon
Puck
PuckSupream^
52% · 248 games54% · 79 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Axe
AxeBOOM
44% · 117 games54% · 200 games
Ember SpiritStormstormer
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
53% · 117 games48% · 182 games
JakiroLelis
Jakiro
Io
IoSeleri
41% · 37 games54% · 185 games
Shadow ShamanDaze
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2