?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 384 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
315 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
315 picks · 710 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
308 picks · 569 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 436 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3