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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 7 games
71%
Mars
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Mirage · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 5 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 422 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 385 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 512 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
317 picks · 711 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
315 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 570 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Kalmychata 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Kalmychata 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 61%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2