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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 14 games
57%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 38 games
37%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
19%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 385 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 511 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 710 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 567 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:21
Virtus.pro 43%AVULUS 57%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
48% · 125 games54% · 181 game
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
52% · 276 games58% · 81 game
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSerenada
42% · 165 games50% · 249 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batridernot me
51% · 294 games47% · 284 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockRein
53% · 213 games46% · 278 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct36:42
Virtus.pro 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:14:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSerenada
47% · 108 games50% · 296 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
58% · 174 games45% · 247 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderDaxak
49% · 326 games58% · 67 games
HuskarWorick
Huskar
Pugna
PugnaRein
51% · 148 games46% · 350 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritnot me
49% · 250 games49% · 46 games
DazzleFly
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed25:11
Virtus.pro 43%AVULUS 57%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
46% · 128 games53% · 162 games
DoomSmiling Knight
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordDaxak
40% · 97 games52% · 235 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSerenada
49% · 311 games48% · 107 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
Rubicknot me
43% · 133 games65% · 107 games
Naga SirenFly
Naga Siren
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
50% · 116 games53% · 174 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3