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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
53%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 7 games
71%
Mars
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Mirage · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 385 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 511 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 710 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 567 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Runa Team 72%Kalmychata 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction missed
Runa Team 72%Kalmychata 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 3prediction correct
Runa Team 72%Kalmychata 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 72%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3