FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 24 games
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
YamSun · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
Chensignature
Speeed · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
MOUZ
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Ekki · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
523 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 424 bans
Tusk
360 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
318 picks · 710 bans
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 565 bans
Dark Willow
310 picks · 197 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 439 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
Wildcard Gaming 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerYamSun
Gyrocopter423
Dark SeerBliNcc
Queen of PainSupream^
Ember SpiritRCY
AxeBOOM
ChenSpeeed
Dark WillowThiolicor
TuskBignum
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Game 2prediction correct21:34
Wildcard Gaming 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainRCY
Ursa423
DoomYamSun
PangolierBOOM
MarsFayde
Ember SpiritSupream^
ChenSpeeed
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
MarciBignum
EnchantressSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 53%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2