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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 41 game
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 23 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
25%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 16 games
69%

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
521 picks · 552 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 379 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 511 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
319 picks · 711 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 564 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 197 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total57% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
AVULUS 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
53% · 149 games45% · 22 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
59% · 170 games49% · 240 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
54% · 191 game44% · 104 games
UndyingSSS
Undying
Pudge
PudgedEsire
56% · 5 games48% · 146 games
Silencerkasane
Silencer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFly
52% · 179 games41% · 182 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed37:12
AVULUS 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
53% · 140 games46% · 140 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
49% · 164 games41% · 92 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Lycan
LycanXibbe
53% · 101 game53% · 68 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Bane
BanedEsire
56% · 44 games56% · 56 games
Silencerkasane
Silencer
Dazzle
DazzleFly
46% · 57 games52% · 150 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed42:6
AVULUS 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
49% · 136 games53% · 139 games
Shadow FiendSquad1x
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
44% · 280 games43% · 171 game
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Invoker
InvokerWorick
54% · 125 games54% · 244 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroFly
49% · 221 game49% · 48 games
Chaos Knightswedenstrong
Chaos Knight
Bane
BanedEsire
55% · 54 games52% · 214 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 57%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3