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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
53%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
521 picks · 552 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 379 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 511 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
319 picks · 711 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 564 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 197 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Runa Team 81%Level UP 19%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Runa Team 81%Level UP 19%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 81%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2