CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
Marci
Wein · 7 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 7 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 5 games
One Move
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Gilgir · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
521 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
Tusk
360 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
321 picks · 709 bans
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 563 bans
Dark Willow
307 picks · 197 bans
Storm Spirit
295 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:42
eSpoiled 36%One Move 64%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 57:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusassnovv1
Storm SpiritDifference
Chenasdekor_r
LifestealerKiritych
MarciWein
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
42% · 40 games
UndyingFishman
51% · 145 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Game 2prediction missed20:5
eSpoiled 33%One Move 67%
The model gave 67% on One Move — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
Troll WarlordKiritych
Chenasdekor_r
Void SpiritDifference
MarciWein
Primal Beastlaise
49% · 169 games
Tusksayuw
52% · 25 games
DisruptorFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 80%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2