?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
27%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Ekki · 8 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 7 games
43%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
520 picks · 550 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 428 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 378 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 711 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 562 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 196 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 436 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:34
MOUZ 51%Runa Team 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer423
50% · 66 games49% · 153 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Puck
PuckSupream^
48% · 188 games49% · 160 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Dazzle
DazzleBOOM
50% · 29 games47% · 140 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Chen
ChenSeleri
65% · 104 games48% · 121 game
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Tusk
TuskThiolicor
49% · 347 games44% · 160 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Game 2prediction missed38:24
MOUZ 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
48% · 143 games58% · 114 games
LycanAlberkaaa
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
45% · 196 games54% · 180 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Undying
UndyingBOOM
40% · 32 games49% · 41 game
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Chaos Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
55% · 32 games53% · 236 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
47% · 209 games51% · 41 game
DazzleHduo
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed29:8
MOUZ 49%Runa Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Runa Team — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother423
61% · 45 games57% · 115 games
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingSupream^
57% · 182 games41% · 195 games
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
47% · 148 games46% · 41 game
UndyingAlberkaaa
Undying
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 142 games53% · 128 games
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Shadow Shaman
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
42% · 79 games46% · 117 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3