CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
Muerta
Fernans · 16 games
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 11 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
518 picks · 550 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 427 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 377 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
321 picks · 707 bans
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 558 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
Storm Spirit
295 picks · 436 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:34
Passion UA 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierBatyuk
Templar AssassinMirele
Queen of PainMoonlight
Lifestealerbottega
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Warlockkreker
Batridermrls
TinyQBFY
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction correct38:29
Passion UA 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonCrystallize
Queen of PainMirele
VenomancerBatyuk
BeastmasterInfernal
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Ursabottega
TinyQBFY
Tuskmrls
Shadow Shamankreker
RingmasterXakoda
Game 3prediction missed32:14
Passion UA 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonCrystallize
Templar AssassinMirele
BeastmasterBatyuk
Doombottega
Queen of PainMoonlight
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Phoenixkreker
Shadow Shamanmrls
LionQBFY
SilencerXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3