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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 14 games
29%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shad · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
518 picks · 549 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 379 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 708 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total68% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
1w Team 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
45% · 90 games49% · 116 games
Shadow FiendShad
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
51% · 41 game52% · 112 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
46% · 151 game58% · 49 games
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Pugna
Pugnakasane
53% · 121 game46% · 59 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Disruptor
Disruptorswedenstrong
48% · 29 games55% · 96 games
Ogre MagiLelis
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct46:28
1w Team 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
54% · 285 games55% · 191 game
Nature's ProphetShad
Nature's Prophet
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
47% · 233 games48% · 219 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Undying
UndyingSSS
47% · 109 games50% · 299 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
48% · 428 games51% · 343 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Pugna
Pugnakasane
51% · 139 games50% · 142 games
RingmasterLelis
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 68%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2