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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 1:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
One Moveloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%

One Move

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
37%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 17 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gilgir · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
518 picks · 549 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 379 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 708 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TNL DOTA 41%One Move 59%
The model gave 59% on One Move — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1