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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
0%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
518 picks · 549 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 428 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 379 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
325 picks · 708 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 559 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 196 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 23%Passion UA 77%
The model gave 77% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Lynx 23%Passion UA 77%
The model gave 77% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 77%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2