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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
HULIGANIloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 11 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 10 games
30%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 8 games
88%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
55%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
mrls · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
514 picks · 547 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 705 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
309 picks · 558 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:37
Yellow Submarine 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanInfernal
60% · 83 games46% · 268 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightbottega
42% · 32 games48% · 186 games
Puckerase
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
55% · 285 games45% · 112 games
MarciMalik
Marci
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
47% · 201 game50% · 183 games
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmrls
52% · 257 games50% · 109 games
Shadow DemonImmersion
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed6:34
Yellow Submarine 52%HULIGANI 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 24:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebottega
43% · 279 games54% · 170 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirele
47% · 141 game49% · 238 games
Puckerase
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
54% · 315 games50% · 94 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Marci
Marcimrls
53% · 188 games51% · 162 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Bane
BaneXakoda
53% · 88 games47% · 347 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2