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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
37%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 16 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gilgir · 14 games
64%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 41 game
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 26 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 16 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
513 picks · 546 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 428 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 376 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 706 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
310 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:51
One Move 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by AVULUS in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
50% · 209 games44% · 169 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
Abaddonlaise
47% · 193 games53% · 255 games
DoomSmiling Knight
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
58% · 296 games51% · 402 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockFishman
57% · 258 games45% · 270 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tusksayuw
51% · 470 games44% · 330 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct14:35
One Move 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
47% · 241 game59% · 267 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
51% · 198 games50% · 289 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyDifference
50% · 524 games53% · 340 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
51% · 301 game49% · 334 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingFishman
45% · 95 games46% · 129 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 53%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2