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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 7 games
43%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 14 games
29%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shad · 14 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
508 picks · 546 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 373 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 704 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
307 picks · 556 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 437 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
MOUZ 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepo423
49% · 10 games48% · 97 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSupream^
43% · 118 games54% · 36 games
Keeper of the LightStormstormer
Keeper of the Light
Undying
UndyingBOOM
48% · 42 games48% · 82 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
52% · 145 games56% · 87 games
Naga SirenLelis
Naga Siren
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
47% · 95 games57% · 108 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct25:39
MOUZ 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkka423
44% · 155 games57% · 273 games
Monkey KingShad
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
43% · 404 games53% · 299 games
Ember SpiritStormstormer
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracSupream^
46% · 105 games56% · 232 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSeleri
51% · 215 games50% · 297 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
45% · 241 game52% · 19 games
Spirit BreakerDaze
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2