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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
32%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
38%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 21 game
52%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
506 picks · 543 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 370 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 509 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 703 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
304 picks · 556 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
303 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 434 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total59% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 41%Runa Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 41%Runa Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 3prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 41%Runa Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 59%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3